Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 3.658563 4.002880 4.405423 4.922945 5.591046 6.458755 7.742407
2024-12-15 3.212030 3.631893 4.163013 4.920375 6.050938 7.864942 11.698649
2024-12-22 2.897441 3.332113 3.905569 4.773715 6.197155 8.884357 17.258296
2024-12-29 2.763820 3.233570 3.881063 4.928431 6.853851 11.465163 55.748306
2025-01-05 2.568340 3.024715 3.664622 4.728074 6.784021 12.357180 NaN
2025-01-12 2.405197 2.844235 3.466485 4.518698 6.622438 12.870562 NaN
2025-01-19 2.293893 2.726624 3.348335 4.423411 6.671547 14.318014 NaN
2025-01-26 2.253309 2.704747 3.370538 4.574141 7.342026 20.860816 NaN
2025-02-02 2.237356 2.715856 3.443410 4.831907 8.462637 51.074598 NaN
2025-02-09 2.180660 2.661898 3.405021 4.864339 8.975006 355.603189 NaN
2025-02-16 2.133770 2.619208 3.380558 4.920431 9.631571 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.050183 2.516147 3.246580 4.722470 9.224977 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.002481 2.468537 3.208299 4.739805 9.765712 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 1.952240 2.414570 3.155325 4.717660 10.158584 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.889481 2.338188 3.058204 4.581402 9.939315 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.871138 2.329868 3.079133 4.722597 11.289331 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.810180 2.251757 2.970974 4.539346 10.671861 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.751011 2.174807 2.862020 4.347060 9.966437 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.709307 2.124217 2.798120 4.259277 9.854815 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.700605 2.125260 2.826214 4.398057 11.244042 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.703108 2.144059 2.887680 4.634392 14.004781 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.680821 2.121772 2.871391 4.664039 15.222647 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.662023 2.104400 2.863225 4.715266 16.989438 NaN NaN